MARKETS
Gold drops 21% from record high ahead of Samvat 2083 as brokerages mark buy zone
Precious metals have surrendered recent gains under pressure from high US yields, but central bank accumulation and domestic demand present a staggered entry opportunity.
Domestic gold prices have fallen nearly 21% from their record high of Rs 1,80,779 per 10 grams to around Rs 1,42,364, giving Indian investors a fresh entry point at the start of Samvat 2083.
The decline follows a record-breaking rally that saw gold prices surge over the past decade. Domestic gold traded around Rs 30,000 per 10 grams in 2016 before climbing to nearly Rs 1.50 lakh per 10 grams in 2026, according to analysis by Motilal Oswal. Recent weeks, however, have seen spot demand soften. On Friday, 6 November, MCX gold futures fell 1.51% to close at Rs 1,41,917 per 10 grams.
International markets have experienced a similar pullback. Data from Kedia Advisory shows international gold prices corrected 29.7% from their January 2026 peak of $5,598 per ounce to $3,937 per ounce. Domestic futures on the MCX dropped 22.9% from their high of Rs 1,80,779 to Rs 1,39,433 per 10 grams over the same timeframe. Silver has undergone an even steeper decline, falling from its February peak of around Rs 4 lakh per kg to nearly Rs 1.70 lakh per kg.
Geopolitical tensions and US interest rate expectations
Gold's safe-haven status faced an unusual challenge during recent market shifts. Conflict involving Iran pushed crude oil prices above $100 per barrel, raising global inflation concerns. Rather than boosting gold, these inflation fears strengthened market expectations that the US Federal Reserve would maintain tighter monetary policy for longer.
Higher interest rate expectations drove up US Treasury yields, increasing the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion and triggering selloffs across global commodity exchanges. Experts note that the direction of gold in the coming months depends heavily on whether crude oil prices cool and whether the US Federal Reserve signals an end to its rate-tightening cycle.
Central bank activity continues to provide a price floor despite commercial selloffs. Global central banks purchased 321 tonnes of gold in the third quarter of 2026, marking a 42% increase year-on-year, according to Kedia Advisory. Meanwhile, domestic prices continue to receive support from currency trends, with the Indian rupee trading weak near 94.73 against the US dollar.
Technical targets and accumulation zones
Technical charts show domestic gold holding near its 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of Rs 1,37,500 per 10 grams, indicating that the broader structural uptrend remains intact despite the sharp correction, according to Kedia Advisory's analysis published on 4 November.
Kedia Advisory places immediate technical support between Rs 1,37,468 and Rs 1,36,600, with deeper support levels positioned at Rs 1,35,000 and Rs 1,24,090. Upside resistance stands at Rs 1,46,232 initially, followed by a target band between Rs 1,48,582 and Rs 1,54,022. The firm expects gold to trade within a broad range of Rs 1,35,000 to Rs 1,48,600 over the next three months, with potential to move above Rs 1,54,000 over six months if international gold clears $4,240 per ounce.
Motilal Oswal maintains a 'Buy on Dips' rating on gold. The brokerage identifies $3,800 to $3,900 per ounce as a prime international accumulation zone, targeting $4,200 in the short term and $4,500 to $4,700 per ounce over the medium term. Assuming a USD/INR exchange rate of 96, Motilal Oswal highlights Rs 1,35,000 per 10 grams as a strong accumulation zone for domestic buyers, setting a short-term price target of Rs 1,48,000 and a medium-term target range of Rs 1,60,000 to Rs 1,68,000.
| Forecast Metric | Motilal Oswal | Kedia Advisory |
|---|---|---|
| Domestic Accumulation Level | Rs 1,35,000 | Rs 1,35,000–Rs 1,37,468 |
| Short-Term Target | Rs 1,48,000 | Rs 1,46,232–Rs 1,48,600 |
| Medium-Term Target | Rs 1,60,000–Rs 1,68,000 | Above Rs 1,54,000 |
| International Buy Zone | $3,800–$3,900 per oz | Not disclosed |
| International Target | $4,200–$4,700 per oz | Above $4,240 per oz |
Why it matters for investors
For Indian retail and institutional investors entering Samvat 2083, the 21% price drop removes much of the froth built up during early 2026. Gold has historically delivered solid long-term compounding in rupee terms, making sharp corrections useful entry windows for portfolio rebalancing.
Instead of making lump-sum purchases, market analysts advise staggering buys around key technical support zones between Rs 1,35,000 and Rs 1,37,500. This approach helps manage potential downside volatility caused by external macroeconomic triggers while positioning portfolios for long-term central bank accumulation.
What happens next
Upcoming US midterm elections introduce an added layer of price volatility. Market reactions to election results could shift fiscal expectations, US dollar valuations and Treasury yields, according to Motilal Oswal. A divided US Congress might generate policy gridlock, while continued single-party control could keep fiscal deficit concerns elevated.
Analysts emphasize that the key macro trigger for gold's next leg up will be the movement of real yields rather than nominal rate peaks. If real yields stabilize or decline due to persistent inflation, geopolitical friction, or signs that high interest rates are slowing economic growth, capital flows are likely to return strongly to gold.